|
|
|
Your Newly Listed
Home's Exposure
with the
Exposure EngineTM
|
|
|
|
Has the Vancouver/Portland Real Estate Market Hit Bottom?
|
|
Gretchen’s Real Estate Prediction for 2010 I am often asked, “Has the Real Estate Market Hit Bottomed?”So, here is my answer and I am basing my prediction on my experience in the market and the information from other real estate experts which is outlined in the table below. Yes, the Housing Market will hit Bottom in 2010 and I am going to predict that it will Hit Bottom in the First Quarter 2010 due to the extension of the Federal Tax Credit and expansion of the $6500 Tax Credit for those who have owned their home for a minimum of 5 years. The result will be a decrease in inventory and a return to the steady and gradual price increases of “old”. Wild cards are the Number of Foreclosures and Bank Owned properties and the Job Growth.
Some are saying banks are holding back on their Foreclosed inventory…a hidden inventory. However, the percentage of foreclosures for the Vancouver/Portland areas is lower than the national and has been the case historically. I am counting on Bank Owned/Foreclosed properties decreasing during the First Quarter of 2010.
Job Growth is another matter. Will have to wait and see what happens on both the local and national economic levels. | Supply of Housing: | Supply (Inventory) currently is impacted by the number of foreclosures. | | National Association of Realtors | "Spring of 2010 supply of homes could fall below 6 months at which point home values could begin to show consistent modest increases in price." www.realtor.org/research/economists_outlook/commentaries/ehs1109 | | CNNMoney.com | "Home prices peaked in 2007, Second Quarter in the Portland, Oregon Area, which includes Vancouver, WA and will hit bottom 2010, Third Quarter at levels seen in 2005, First Quarter."
money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/moneymag_realestate/2009/snapshots/28.html | | Wall Street Journal | "It's All Good!"
"Home prices have a strong possibility of a 35% gain by the end of 2010. Foreclosures are still to be marketed. And government efforts will be successful and the wave of foreclosures will be concluding. Demand is catching up with Supply. Lack of new residential and rental construction will lead to rental shortage and the subsequent increases in rents within the next 22 months. Also mentioned was the Case-Schiller Index with the expectation of markets stabilizing and starting to rise year end 2009." www.wallstreetgreek.blogspot.com/2009/03/2009-real-estate-forecast.html | | Mortgage Bankers Association | "Historically the Foreclosure rate for the Portland Oregon Area has been less than 1% compared to the National Foreclosure rate of a little over 1%. Currently the Portland area's foreclosure rate is aroung 2.5% compared to the National Foreclosure rate close to 4.5%." | | First American CoreLogic, Loan Performance Data | "The Foreclosure and Bank Owned rate is low compared to the national average most likely due to the lowere percentage of subprime lending in the Portland Area." | | Demand for Housing | Job Growth is the primary driver of housing demand along with Affordability. | | Multiple Authors | "Job Growth Rate for the area has contracted more than in other markets. Affordability improving, could be better and historically is strong."
Historically low interest rates is the major contributor to this affordability. |
|
|
Gretchen's Recent Blog Posts
|
-
|
Path to the $8000 Federal Tax Credit: On 12/2/2009 Credit is gone! Need to be in new home 12/1/2009! 10% of Sales Price of Your Primary Residence Up to $8000! (10% of Home Sold for $80,000 or Greater) Buyer Qualification Single Filer:$75,000 Joint Filers:...
|
-
|
I regularly preview homes to keep myself informed on the residential real estate inventory in the Vancouver Washington area and as I mentioned in other blogs, I am seeing some very good buys! So here is my good buy of the week. This home is located in...
|
-
|
According to an article in Forbes.com written by Matt Woolsey on December 16, 2008, the Portland OR area which includes the Vancouver, WA area is the 9th best bet. The #1 Best Bet is Seattle, WA. Why? According to Woolsey, the top 10 best bets are such...
|
-
|
My commentary concerning the December 2008 Real Estate Market Trends for the Vancouver, WA and Portland, OR: It certainly is an interesting time for our country and maybe the world due to poor decisions made by many people during the most recent real...
|
-
|
In todays Inman News, 11/24/08, Patrick Duffy writes a book review of the book Financial Shock: A 360 degree look at the subprime mortgage implosion and how to avoid the next financial crisis by author: Mark Zandi It is much more succinct than the article...
|
|
|