My commentary concerning the December 2008 Real Estate Market Trends for the Vancouver, WA and Portland, OR:
It certainly is an interesting time for our country and maybe the world due to poor decisions made by many people during the most recent real estate boom! And as I mentioned in my last newsletter, I have decided to give little credibility to the real estate news reporting.
What I know, here in the Pacific Northwest:
1. Financing for homes is available and offered at a historically low interest rate!
Several loan consultants have been sending me emails saying they have loans available.
If I was considering purchasing a home, I would definitely purchase now!!
At the Home Buying Seminar of which I am one of the presenters, the loan consultant presented several programs.
2. Homes available to purchase (Inventory) is high!
Fewer homes are selling (4-8%/month).
Inventory currently includes short sales and bank owned properties impacting the homes available that have yet to sell.
Once the short sale and bank owed property inventory is depleted/reduced, the inventory picture will be more normal.
The reduction in inventory impacts that supply and demand factor that affects sales and especially prices.
As I preview properties, I have seen some really nice homes that are reasonably priced!!!
3. The 15%/year appreciation in the price of homes could not continue...homes would not be affordable at that rate.
I recall forecasters in 2006 saying the bubble would soon bust. It did bust in Pacific Northwest in Aug/Sept. 2007.
Looking back at the data, I see the August and September 2007 decline and not before and it felt like a bubble
popping.
4. The forecasters are now saying things are beginning to stabilize and with all the variables, when is hard to determine
The Pending Home Sales Index is a forward-looking indicator of homes sales and that indicator is showing an
index number improvement starting in August 2008. It's interesting to look at the index numbers starting in 2005.
In 2006 the index started to decrease, in 2007 it decreased more and 2008 the declining trend continued during
the 1st and 2nd quarters. These index numbers are for the Western part of the USA.
Price projections are challenging to predict with so many variables.And one commentator, Lawrence Yun of National
Association of Realtors, stated buyer pessimism could cause prices to overshoot the downward price correction.
I have seen the same commentary from others as well. The end of the bust may be as dramatic as the bubble bust.
I did a market analysis of my home and seeing the price reduction was not a comfortable feeling until I used a bit
of reason. Instead of looking at the impressive appreciation rate of the past, I looked at an average appreciation rate
of 5%. With that in mind, my home still was valued at approximately $50,000 over what we paid for the home in
in 2003.
Check out my Market Trend Reports for the Vancouver and Portland Areas which can be seen on my website:
PS: The next WSHFC Sponsored Home Buyer Seminar is scheduled for January 24, 2009 from 9 AM to 2 PM.
Those attending the December 13, 2008 seminar said it was very informative.
Presenters besides Roger Pyles, loan consultant, Realtor, Gretchen Skeaton were
Norm Shakelford, inspector with Quality First, Brad Hill, an appraiser with Cascade Appraisal, Chris Kocalis with
AL Insurance and Angie Ashton, escrow officer representing Columbia Title Company.
Call/email me for details if you or someone you know would like to learn more about the home buying
seminar. Participants receive a certificate that can be used by those entities requiring attendance of a
home buying seminar.
Wishing you and yours a Christmas Holiday FULL of Joy!!
Gretchen Skeaton, MT (ASCP), MSM
GRI, CRS, AHS, e-PRO
Licensed in both Washington and Oregon
360 608-8541 or 503 750-3212
Call or Email me to discuss taking advantage of this Market.